‘Surprise Jump’ in Home Sales for October, Says Canadian Real Estate Association
Thursday, November 28, 2024
By Matt Day for REALTOR.ca
Who had a 7.7% increase in home sales on their real estate bingo card for October?
The latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows Canadian home sales activity spiked last month, reaching a level unseen since April 2022, and surpassing the 10-year monthly moving average.
“The jump in home sales last month was definitely an October surprise, although with the big interest rate cut of 50 basis points announced during the last week of the month, the increase was more likely related to the surge in new listings we saw in September,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.
Before we get into why this happened and what it all means as we head into 2025, here are some of the latest numbers:
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly home sales activity came in 30% above October 2023.
The number of newly listed properties was down 3.5% month-over-month in October.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 6% on a year-over-year basis in October.
What caused the October rise in home sales?
As Cathcart mentioned, the catalyst wasn’t necessarily the recent “jumbo rate cut” from the Bank of Canada, but rather September’s 4.8% jump in newly listed properties. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Lower Mainland region of British Columbia, two of Canada’s priciest markets, recorded double digit sales increases—a 14% increase month-over-month in the GTA and a near 20% increase in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.
“October’s strong sales numbers across Canada suggest buyers have been in the market since rates began to fall in early summer, but they were waiting for the right property to come up for sale, which didn’t happen in a big way until September,” said James Mabey, CREA’s Chair and a REALTOR® in Edmonton, Alberta.
It’s important to remember that, typically, home sales tend to slow down in November.
So, while October may have raised some eyebrows—especially the 30% year-over-year increase in sales compared to October 2023—November’s numbers may come back down to Earth.
“We can sort of consider October and maybe November as sort of a preview of some of the even bigger numbers you and I will be talking about once the snow starts to melt next year,” Cathcart said in CREA’s Housing Market Report.
Canadian home prices remain mostly flat for now
Even with all the added activity and pullback of new listings in October, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI)—an exclusive tool REALTORS® use to measure a neighbourhood’s home price levels and trends most accurately—was pretty much unchanged, dropping ever so slightly by 0.07%.
“That said, there’s usually a bit of lag between when demand picks up and the market tightens, and then when prices react,” Cathcart explained.
“The long-term average is over five (months), so using history as a guide, we may start to see this impacting the price side as early as next month.”
October saw the national sales-to-new-listings ratio jump from 52% to 58%, and the number of months of inventory drop from 4.1 months to 3.7 months.
Regionally, prices are softer in British Columbia and Ontario, and that’s keeping the national average flat. Markets in the Prairies, Quebec and the East Coast are seeing prices rise.
“It’s sort of like someone played an Uno reverse card here on Canadian housing trends,” Cathcart added.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was $696,166 in October 2024.
“Whether you’re looking to sell now that buyers are back, or looking to make a purchase while you have a wider selection, the first step is always to contact a REALTOR® in your area,” Mabey said.
If you are thinking about selling in the next little while, I would be more than happy to provide you with a free, comprehensive and up-to-date home evaluation and give you tips on what to do and just as importantly, what not to do to sell your home for the most amount of money.
If you’re thinking about buying, I can go over the homebuying process and explain how The Brian Kondo Homebuying System can help you find your dream home in this ever changing and challenging market.
Finally, if you already own a home and are looking to both sell and buy, in addition to the above, I can also go over the various closing costs you will incur so you will know exactly what you’ll have left in your pocket after all expenses.
You can contact me by calling 905-683-7800. Please ask for me, Brian Kondo.
Thanks for reading today’s BLOG!!!
Brian Kondo
Sales Representative / Team Leader
The Brian Kondo Real Estate Team
Re/Max Hallmark First Group Realty Ltd.
905-683-7800 office
905-426-7484 direct
brian@briankondo.com
www.BrianKondo.com
www.BrianKondoTeam.com
Matt Day's article was initially published on REALTOR.ca. You can find it by clicking here.
| REALTOR.ca is the most popular and most trusted real estate website in Canada. Owned and operated by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), REALTOR.ca provides up-to-date and reliable information that makes finding your dream property easy and enjoyable. REALTOR.ca is popular with sellers, buyers, and renters and is accessible online and on mobile devices. |
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About the Author Matt Day brings his experience as a nationally-recognized multimedia journalist to the Canadian Real Estate Association as a Communications Advisor. Matt provides professional writing, digital media and communications support to CREA and assists in developing engaging social media content. He is regularly featured in the CREA Café where he provides interesting and entertaining content for REALTORS® to enjoy. In his spare time, you can find him riding bikes or playing guitar. |
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